ASOFeb 17, 20266 min read

Mastering ASO: How Chance Scores Can Improve Your App’s Ranking

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karya@otherwayaround.co
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Mastering ASO: How Chance Scores Can Improve Your App’s Ranking

Mastering ASO: How Chance Scores Can Improve Your App’s Ranking

For app marketers, achieving higher rankings in the App Store is essential, but it’s often challenging to navigate the complex world of App Store Optimization (ASO). The key to success lies in understanding Chance scores, the probability of ranking within the top 10 for a specific keyword, and how to leverage Apple Search Ads effectively to boost your app's visibility.

In this post, we’ll explain how Chance scores work, the factors that influence them, and how you can use Apple Search Ads to improve your ranking.

Understanding Chance Scores and How They Impact App Ranking

When you launch a new app, choosing the right keywords is crucial, but Chance scores provide a much more actionable insight into how likely your app is to rank for those keywords. Instead of just looking at how competitive a keyword is, Chance focuses on the probability of ranking in the top 10 for a particular keyword.

What Is Chance?

The Chance score measures the probability of your app ranking within the top 10 for a specific keyword. The score is scaled from 0 to 100, with higher scores meaning a better chance of ranking well. Chance is based on several factors:

  • Competing Apps: The number of apps competing for the same keyword.
  • Search Volume: How often people search for that keyword.
  • Your App's Performance: Your app's existing ranking, download history, and engagement for that keyword.

A high Chance score means there’s a higher probability that your app will rank well for that keyword, and this score helps you prioritize which keywords to focus on for better visibility.

Why Chance Scores Matter for ASO

The Chance score is a practical measure for app marketers compared to traditional keyword difficulty. While keyword difficulty looks at the competition, Chance focuses on probability, giving you insight into which keywords are more likely to get you ranked in the top 10. Here’s why Chance should be the core of your ASO strategy:

  • Higher Chance = Better Ranking Potential: A high Chance score indicates a better chance of ranking in the top 10, meaning your app is more likely to gain visibility quickly.
  • Actionable Insight: Instead of wasting time on keywords that are unlikely to rank, you can focus on those with the highest Chance scores to improve your ASO efforts.

By focusing on keywords with high Chance scores, you can increase your visibility and improve your app’s ranking in the App Store.

Choosing Keywords with High Chance Scores

For a new app, like a fitness tracking tool, you need to quickly gain visibility. The goal is to target keywords that have a high Chance of ranking in the top 10. Here’s how to make the best keyword choices:

  • High Chance: Select keywords with high Chance scores, meaning there’s a better probability of ranking well for those terms.
  • Relevance: Ensure the keywords are directly related to your app’s core features. For example, for a fitness tracking app, keywords like “fitness tracker,” “workout logs,” and “calorie counter” would be ideal.

Example: Keyword Segmentation for New Apps

Let’s say you’re launching a fitness tracking app. Here’s how you can break down your keywords based on Chance scores:

  • Fitness Tracker Related Keywords
  • Workout Log Related Keywords
  • Calorie Counter Related Keywords

By targeting keywords with high Chance scores, you’re focusing on terms that are more likely to help you rank well, giving your app the best chance for visibility and success.

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Apple’s Ranking Signals: What Really Matters

Once you’ve selected the right keywords, it’s important to understand the ranking signals Apple uses to evaluate your app. These signals play a crucial role in determining where your app shows up in search results and can influence your Chance score for specific keywords.

The Three Key Signals Apple Looks At

  • Install-to-Pay Conversion Rate: This refers to how many of your installs lead to paid conversions (e.g., in-app purchases or subscriptions).

Tip: Improve your onboarding process to make it easier for users to understand the value of your app and increase the likelihood of paying for premium features.

  • Speed and Number of Reviews: Apple tracks how quickly users leave reviews and how many reviews you accumulate over time.

Tip: Add review prompts within the app to encourage users to leave reviews, especially after positive experiences.

  • Impression-to-Download Conversion Rate: How many impressions turn into actual downloads, which is critical for new apps to build momentum.

Tip: Use Apple Search Ads to improve your conversion rates from impressions to downloads, which can help improve your Chance of ranking higher organically.

How Apple Search Ads Help Improve Your Ranking and Chance

While Chance scores focus on the potential for ranking, Apple Search Ads help you get the impressions and downloads needed to make that ranking a reality. Apple Search Ads act as a fast-impact lever, driving paid traffic that can accelerate your app's rise in the rankings.

The Impact of Apple Search Ads

When you run ads for a keyword with a high Chance score, and your impression-to-download conversion rate is higher than competitors, Apple will notice that your app is performing well and may increase your impressions and ranking for that keyword.

For example, if your app converts 18% of impressions to downloads (compared to 10% for most competitors), Apple will see this as a signal that your app is performing well and may increase your visibility, which can directly improve your Chance score for that keyword.

How to Use Apple Search Ads Effectively

To maximize the impact of Apple Search Ads:

  • Prioritize Keywords with High Chance: Choose keywords that have a high Chance score to increase your likelihood of ranking well.
  • Optimize Your Ads: Make sure your ad creatives are engaging and that your call-to-action (CTA) is clear, encouraging users to download your app.

By using Apple Search Ads alongside your ASO efforts, you can boost both your impression-to-download conversion rate and your Chance score, leading to better app rankings and increased organic visibility.

Focus on Chance to Rank Higher

When it comes to ranking your app, Chance scores are the key metric to watch. By targeting keywords with high Chance scores, you significantly improve your chances of ranking in the top 10 and boosting your app’s visibility in the App Store.

Understanding Apple’s ranking signals and using Apple Search Ads effectively can further enhance your Chance of ranking higher, leading to more downloads and faster growth.

At OtherWayAround, we specialize in helping app marketers optimize their Chance scores and keyword strategy for sustained app growth. By applying these tactics, you’ll be on your way to improving your app’s ranking and increasing its visibility.

Ready to increase your app’s Chance of ranking higher?

Schedule a meeting with us to learn how we can help you prioritize high Chance keywords and boost your app’s ranking quickly.

Join the OWA AI Waitlist to get access to our AI-powered tools that calculate Chance scores, track your keyword performance, and optimize your app’s ranking in real time.

Let’s improve your app’s "Chance of success" today!